How accuracy may be ensured in techniques used Essay

M1: Explain how accuracy may be ensured in the techniques used Cynthia Nzeh Task 1 1) Discuss how your choice of equipment and how it affected the accuracy of your method. Discuss good volumetric technique. 2) Calculate the apparatus error for the method used. 3) Given the value calculated by the senior technician calculate your error and comment on this error in relation to the apparatus error of the method. In the titration, I used these available instruments to ensure my results would be as accurate as possible. Volumetric burette: This instrument was filled with the sodium hydroxide solution that would be gradually added to the vinegar solution. The burette was used instead of a measuring cylinder as it gives a finer volume reading. It has a tap which enables the user to quickly and easily stop the amount of sodium hydroxide solution that pours out. However using a piston burette instead of a volumetric burette may have increased the chances of gaining more accurate results. This is because the piston burette delivers precision bore and plunger. White tile: The tile was used to be able to observe the colour change of the solution in the conical flask better. By placing the white tile it allowed us to see the colour change more easily and quickly therefore increasing our chances of closing the burette tap on time and giving us closer and possibly more accurate results. If non clear paper was used or no paper at all, the colour change of the solution would not have been spotted as quickly therefore increasing the time taken to close the burette tap to stop sodium hydroxide being added to the vinegar solution. The increase of sodium hydroxide solution would mean that the results obtained would not be the accurate or close to the accurate value. Funnel: This piece of equipment was added to the top of the burette and it was used to channel the sodium hydroxide solution into the burette. The mouth of the burette was too small to pour the sodium hydroxide solution in safely so the plastic funnel was used to prevent any spillage of the solution and enabled the sodium hydroxide solution to be poured into the  burette with precision and no spillage. A disposable paper funnel would not have been an appropriate piece of equipment to use, this is because the paper funnel would have absorbed some of the correctly measured sodium hydroxide solution (liquid) and changed the total volume of the sodium hydroxide going into the burette. The funnel is then removed before the titration takes place; this is to prevent any extra droplets, of the solution remaining in the funnel, to be added to the solution as it could affect the overall volume in the burette. Conical flask: The conical flask was used to store the vinegar with drops of phenolphthalein before sodium hydroxide was added to the solution through the burette. A conical flask was the most ideal piece of equipment to use. The narrow head minimises the risk of splashes from the flask, this means that the solution remains in the flask and does not come into contact with experimenter. Using a conical flask over a beaker is more ideal. This is due to the fact that a beaker has a wide open mouth which means that solutions can splash out when poured in. Also, the shape of the instrument make it is easier to swirl the contents of the flask. Bulb pipette (and filler): This instrument was used to measure out 25.0cm3 of sodium hydroxide to be added to the conical flask. There is a line of meniscus which indicates where the volume should be, this makes the pipette produce an accurate 25.0 volume. The pipette has a narrow portion which slows down the speed at which the solution gets drawn up. This enables the volume to be more accurate as it is easier and quicker to stop the pipette drawing up more of the solution after drawing up the desired amount. A measuring cylinder may have also been used and may be more ideal than the bulb pipette. This is due to the fact that it has a measuring scale and the amount poured into the instrument is more controlled compared to the bulb pipette as this only has one line of measurement and it is tricky to get a solution to fall on the line of the meniscus. Good Volumetric Techniques To achieve a good volumetric technique, the experimenter needs to be able to correctly complete certain procedures. Before beginning an experiment, it is good to calibrate any equipment that needs calibration. This ensures that results obtain will be as accurate as possible or as near to the true value. All equipment should be inspected to ensure that there are no chips, cracks or general damage to the equipment as these could cause problems during the experiment which could affect the overall results gained. Equipment such as burettes, pipettes, flasks and beakers must be rinsed with distilled water to get rid of any impurities in the equipment. If solutions are to be poured in any piece of equipment then the equipment should also be rinsed out with the solution being used, this will maintain the pH level in the instrument. Once a solution is transferred from the pipette to the flask, touching the tip of the pipette on the side of the flask will drain any extra drops that may still remain on the tip of the pipette. When filling up the burette it is important that a funnel is used, however as the solution reaches the 0 mark it is ideal that the funnel be removed and a pipette used instead to reach the 0 mark, this is to achieve greater precision. During the experiment, it is important to swirl the flask continuously with one hand whilst the other hand opens and closes the tap of the burette, this allows the solution to mix well enough for the colour change to be observed quicker. The titrant should be added in drop by drop as it reaches the endpoint as it prevents too much of the solution in the burette to be added to the solution in the conical flask. Also, the tap should be shut properly to prevent any extra unwanted solution from pouring out. The burette and pipette must be read at eye level to gain the actual result. To ensure reliability, the experiment should be repeated until a concordance between two results is acquired. Apparatus error To calculate the apparatus error the equation is: Maximum error Measure Value 25cm3 pipette = ( ± 0.1cm3 à · 25) x 100 = 0.4 Burette = ( ± 0.15cm à · 22.75) x 100 = 0.66 Mass Balance = (0.01 à · 4.05) x 100 = 0.25 Volumetric flask = (0.1 à · 200) x 100 = 0.05 = 1.36% apparatus error Experimental error = 100 x (real answer – experiment answer) Real answer 100 x (0.056 – 0.0546) 0.056 100 x 0.0014 = 2.5% 0.056 The experimental error is greater than the apparatus error. This could have been down to a number of different factors. Too much sodium hydroxide may have been added to the solution which could have changed the volume of sodium hydroxide used. The burette could have been read wrong and not at the same eye level or from the bottom of the meniscus line. These faults may have been the cause of the experimental error or they may have added to the experimental error and this is why the experimental error is much greater than the apparatus error. Task 2 & 3 There were certain procedures done in order to ensure the results obtained would be as accurate as possible. Flame test Before beginning the experiment, the wire loop is dipped into dilute hydrochloric acid then held in a Bunsen burner flame. This is to get rid of any residue remaining of the loop. Each test tube was correctly labelled to avoid a mix up. The solutions where look at behind a white background, this was to enable the correct colour to be identified easier. Different instruments for different solution were used. Food test For this test it was important to keep the amount of food samples used equal for each food group. The food samples were placed in separate pellets to avoid cross contamination between the foods. Each test tube was correct labelled to avoid a mix up. Equal drops of indicators were added to each food sample. Sources http://nobel.scas.bcit.ca/courses/wpmu/chem0011/files/2010/06/Lab8-Introduction-to-Volumetric-Techniques-I.pdf http://chemwiki.ucdavis.edu/Analytical_Chemistry/Quantitative_Analysis/Titration http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/showthread.php?t=363038 http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_do_you_calculate_percentage_error_for_equipment http://www.chemguide.co.uk/inorganic/group1/flametests.html

Authority in One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest Essay

On the surface, Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest seem like two very different films. Loneliness is filmed in black and white and takes place in an English borstal school; Cuckoo’s Nest takes place in an American psychiatric ward and is presented in color. Dig a little deeper, however, and it is clear that these films are actually quite similar. Each film depicts the rebellious protaganists—Colin and McMurphy—attempting to overcome the oppressive figures of authority—the Governor and Nurse Ratched. Because of the nature of the films, viewers are lead to consider Colin and McMurphy heroes and to despise the authorities. While it is hard to deny that the Governor and Nurse Ratched don’t at times take advantage of their jurisdiction, it is also unfair to argue against the fact that they are just two people doing their jobs. Both Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest depict rebels who are doomed. The authorities at the psychiatric ward and the borstal have strict rules and expect Randle Patick McMurphy and Colin Smith to conform to these rules, just as every other patient or student has done. The differences between the tone and outcome of these two films are a result of the differences between the types of characters who represent authority. In Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner, authorities are shown to be invasive and aggressive. As Colin mentions in the opening line of the film, his family is always running from the police. Further into the film, a flashback shows a detective tracking Colin down at his house after he steals from a bakery. Before finally catching him, the detective is very persistent in his efforts to catch Colin. This surly man provides a search warrant but is unsuccessful in his attempts to locate the stolen money, so he tells Colin that he will be watching him. The true authority figure in Loneliness, though, is the Governor at Ruxton Towers. The Governor is a nice man with absolute power. At the borstal he runs everything by the book. He holds the boys to very strict rules and standards, from having to wear uniforms to having a monitored sleeping schedule. With the boys living and going to school in the same place, there is really no way of escaping the watch of the Governor. In fact, he even comes into the locker room and has conversations with the boys while they are in the shower. Throughout the film, there are also several religious undertones present in the representation of authority, shown primarily in the singing of the English hymn â€Å"Jerusalem. † The Governor uses conformity as a tool to strengthen his school. His main goal is recognition for the school and for himself. In Cuckoo’s Nest, Nurse Ratched is depicted as a very cold figure. She runs the psychiatric ward with an iron fist. Yes, she answers to the head doctors and has a large staff to help her, but she runs the place. The nurse takes advantage of the vulnerability of her patients. In group ‘therapy’ sessions, she often pushes the men to talk about experiences that they are unwilling to talk about. She uses her friendship with Billy’s mother as a threat in order to get him to cooperate with her. Instead of listening to what McMurphy and the other patients want to do, she pushes her own agenda. When McMurphy and the others want to watch a game of baseball, she won’t let them for the sole purpose of not giving McMurphy what he wants. It seems as though the head doctors (the people who should really be the authority) are oblivious to the actions of Nurse Ratched. In fact, they praise her work and there is no one capable of arguing with them. It is interesting to note that in terms of authority, there is no religious imagery in thie film like in Loneliness. Instead, it is McMurphy who appears Christ-like and takes on ‘disciples. ’ Nurse Ratched uses conformity to get her patients to do as she says. Her goal is to try to ‘fix’ each of them. The Governor is mostly respected by the boys. He’s a nice man, but everyone is afraid of him because of his power, just as employees fear their bosses. They don’t mess with him because they know they can only get so far. He has total control over them because they eat, sleep, and go to school all under his watch. Ruxton Towers is the type of place a teenage boy would want to escape from, but the Governor has made the boys feel as though escape is beyond reality. Nurse Ratched, on the other hand, is not respected by her patients. This is a direct result of her concern with getting people to do as she says rather than gaining their respect. Though she demands to be taken seriously, she rarely is. Her patients are all tired of her oppression but lack the physical and mental capacity to do anything about it. Also, like in Loneliness, her authority is not challenged simply because her subjects are afraid of her. Randle McMurphy and Colin Smith are game-changers. Their arrivals empower their cohorts to act out against the system. We see the authority of the Governor challenged in the food fight scene and the authority of Nurse Ratched challenged in the fishing scene. However, Colin and Randle doom themselves in their final acts of defiance. Colin throwing the race results in his contemptment by the borstal; Randle throwing a party and chocking Nurse Ratched results in his lobotomy. In going against authority, these protagonists are left worse off than they were before. Nurse Ratched and the Governor each bring down the antihero. But does that warrant them heroes? No. It doesn’t make them good or bad. Yes, Nurse Ratched seems evil and the Governor seems overbearing, but we are only viewing them through a lens. They lead a system bad enough for people to want to rebel against it, but maybe that rebellion is against the system and not the characters. These are two characters merely doing their jobs. Their borstal and psychiatric ward are not ones that I would want to be in, but I wouldn’t want to be in any borstal or psychiatric ward. Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner and One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest contain similar themes and represent similar figures of authority. Nurse Ratched and the Governor are not the most likeable characters. They desire order and take advantage of their power, and that makes us dislike them. But none of their actions are unprovoked. They have tough jobs and they made mistakes. They’re human.

Decision Analysis

CREATE Research Archive Published Articles & Papers 1-1-1980 Structuring Decision Problems for Decision Analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt University of Southern California, [email  protected] edu Follow this and additional works at: http://research. create. usc. edu/published_papers Recommended Citation von Winterfeldt, Detlof, â€Å"Structuring Decision Problems for Decision Analysis† (1980). Published Articles & Papers. Paper 35. http://research. create. usc. edu/published_papers/35 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by CREATE Research Archive.It has been accepted for inclusion in Published Articles & Papers by an authorized administrator of CREATE Research Archive. For more information, please contact [email  protected] edu. Acta Psychologica 45 (1980) 71-93 0 North-Holland Publishing Company STRUCTURING DECISION PROBLEMS FOR DECISION ANALYSIS * Detlof von WINTERFELDT ** University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90007, USA Structuring decisio n problems into a formally acceptable and manageable format is probably the most important step of decision analysis.Since presently no sound methodology for structuring exists, this step is still an art left to the intuition and craftsmanship of the individual analyst. After introducing a general concept of structuring, this paper reviews some recent advances in structuring research. These include taxonomies for problem identification and new tools such as influence diagrams and interpretative structural modeling. Two conclusions emerge from this review: structuring research is still limited to a few hierarchical concepts and it tends to ignore substantive problem aspects that delineate a problem it its real world context.Consequently structuring research has little to say about distinctions between typical problem classes such as regulation, siting, or budget allocation. As an alternative the concept of â€Å"prototypical decision analytic structures† is introduced. Such st ructures are developed to meet the substantive characteristics of a specific problem (e. g. , siting a specific Liquid Natural Gas plant) but they are at the same time general enough to apply to similar problems (industrial facility siting). As an illustration, the development of a prototypical analytic structure for environmental standard setting is described.Finally, some typical problem classes are examined and some requirements for prototypical structures are discussed. An introduction to problem structuring Decision analysis can be divided into four steps: structuring the problem; formulating inference and preference models; eliciting probabilities and utilities; and exploring the numerical model results. Prac* This research was supported by a grant from the Department of Defense and was monitored by the Engineering Psychology Programs of the Office of Naval Research, under contract # NOOO14-79C-0529.While writing this paper, the author discussed the problem of structuring exte nsively with Helmut Jungermann. The present version owes much to his thought. Please don’t take footnote 3 too seriously. It is part of a footnote war between Ralph Keeney and me. ** Presently with the Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90007, (213) 741-6955. 12 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems titioners of decision analysis generally agree that structuring is the most important and difficult step of the analysis.Yet, until recently, decision analytic research has all but ignored structuring, concentrating instead on questions of modeling and elicitation. As a result, structuring was, and to some extent still is, considered the ‘art’ part of decision analysis. This paper examines some attempts to turn this art into a science. Trees are the most common decision analytic structures. Decision trees, for example, represent the sequential aspects of a decision problem (see Raiffa 1968 ; Brown et al. 1974). Other examples are goal trees for the representations of values (Keeney and Raiffa 1976) and event trees for the representation f inferential problem aspects (Kelly and Barclay 1973). In fact, trees so much dominate decision analytic structures that structuring is often considered synonymous to building a tree. This paper, however, will adopt a more general notion of decision analytic structuring. According to this notion, structuring is an imaginative and creative process of translating an initially ill-defined problem into a set of welldefined elements, relations, and operations. The basic structuring activities are identifying or generating problem elements (e. g. , events, values, actors, decision alternatives) nd relating these elements by influence relations, inclusion relations, hierarchical ordering relations, etc. The structuring process seeks to formally represent the environmental (objective) parts of the decision problem and the decision makers†™ or experts’ (subjective) views, opinions, and values. Graphs, maps, functional equations, matrices, trees, physical analogues, flow charts, and venn diagrams are all possible problem representations. In order to be useful structures for decision analysis, such representations must facilitate the subsequent steps of modeling, elicitation, and numerical nalysis. Three phases can be distinguished in such a generalized structuring process. In the first phase the. problem is identified. The elements which are generated in this phase are the substantive features of the problem: the decision maker(s); the generic classes of alternatives, objectives, and events; individuals or groups affected by the decision; characteristics of the problem environment. This list is pruned by answering questions such as: what is the purpose of the analysis? For whom is the analysis to be performed? Which alternatives can the decision maker truly control?At this stage only very rough relations betw een problem elements are constructed. Examples include organizational relations D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 73 among decision makers, influence relations between classes of actions and events, and rough groupings of objectives. Products of this problem identification step are usually not very formal, and are seldom reported in the decision analytic literature. They may be in the form of diagrams, graphs, or ordered lists. Among the few documented examples are Hogarth et al. (1980) for the problem of city planning and Fischer and von Winterfeldt 1978) for the problem of setting environmental standards. In the second structuring step, an overall analytic structure is developed. The elements generated in this step are possible analytic problem representations. Besides tree structures, these may include more complex structures previously developed for similar problems such as screening structures for siting decisions or signal detection structures for medical decis ion making. Paradigmatic structures of alternative modeling approaches (e. g. , systems dynamics or linear programming) which could fit the problem should also be examined at this step [ 1 I.A creative activity in this structuring phase is to relate and combine part structures, e. g. , simulation structures with evaluation structures, or decision trees of different actors. From the candidate structures and their combinations an overall structure is selected which is judged most representative of the problem and manageable for further modeling and elicitation. Only a handful of analytic structures have been developed which are more complex than decision trees. Gardiner and Ford (in press) combined simulation and evaluation structures.Keeney (in press) developed decision analytic structure for the whole process of siting energy facilities. Von Winterfeldt (1978) constructed a generic structure for regulatory decision making. The third structuring phase coincides with the more traditio nal and limited notion of structuring. In this step the parts of the overall analytic structure are formalized in detail by refining the problem elements and relations identified in the first step. This includes a detailed construction of decision trees, event trees, and goal trees. Linkages between part structures are established, e. g. between simulation and evaluation structures. Decision makers and groups affected by possible decisions are specified together with events or actions linking [l] Although such structures alternatives to decision analytic in the remainder of this paper. structures should be considered, I will ignore 14 D. von Winterfeldt/Structuring decision problems them. Examples of this structuring step can be found in most decision analytic textbooks. This three step structuring process of identifying the problem, developing an analytic structure, and formalizing its detailed content seldom evolves in strict sequence.Instead, the process is recursive, with repeat ed trials and errors. Often the analyst decides on a specific structure and later finds it either unmanageable for modeling or non-representative of the problem. The recognition that a structure needs refmement often follows the final step of decision analysis, if numerical computations and sensitivity analyses point to places that deserve more detailed analysis. Knowing about the recursive nature of the structuring process, it is good decision analysis practice to spend much effort on structuring and to keep an open mind about possible revisions.The above characterization of the structuring process will be used as a format to review the structuring literature. First, the use of problem taxonomies for the step of problem identification is examined. Methods to select analytic approaches are then reviewed as possible aids for the second structuring step. Finally, some recent advances in formalizing part structures are discussed. * Two conclusions emerged from this review and motivated the subsequent sections of this paper: (1) Although structuring research has much to say about analytic distinctions between decision problems and structures (e. . , whether a problem is multiattributed or not), it has little bearing on substantive problem distinction (e. g. , the difference between a typical regulation problem and a typical investment problem). (2) Structuring research is still limited to a few, usually hierarchical concepts and operations. Emphasis is put on simple, operational and computerized structuring. Little effort is spent on creating more complex combinations of structures that represent real problem classes. As an alternative, the concept of prototypical decision analytic structures is introduced.Such structures have more substance and complexity than the usual decision trees or goal trees. They are developed to meet the substantive characteristics of a specific problem, but are at the same time general enough to apply to similar problems. As an illustra tion, IIASA’s [21 development of a prototypical decision analytic [2] International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 75 structure for environmental standard setting will be described. Finally, several typical classes of decision problems will be examined and some requirements or prototypical structures will be discussed. Taxonomies for problem identification The taxonomies described in the following typically classify decision problems by analytic categories (e. g. , whether a problem is multiattributed or not) and they attempt to slice the universe of problems into mutually exclusive and exhaustive sets. The purpose of such taxonomies is twofold: to facilitate the identification of an unknown element (e. g. , a medical decision problem) with a class of problems (e:g. , diagnostic problem); and to aid the process of matching classes in the problem taxonomy (e. . , diagnostic problems) with an analyti c approach (e. g. , signal detection structures). Thus, by their own aspiration, problem taxonomies should be useful for the early phases of structuring decision problems. MacCrimmon and Taylor (1975) discuss on a rather general level the relationship between decision problems and solution strategies. Decision problems are classified according to whether they are ill-structured or well-structured, depending on the extent to which the decision maker feels familiar with the initial state of the problem, the terminal state, and the transformations equired to reach a desired terminal state. Three main factors contribute to ill-structuredness: uncertainty, complexity, and conflict. For each category MacCrimmon and Taylor discuss a number of solution strategies. These strategies include, for example, reductions of the perceptions of uncertainty, modeling strategies, information acquisition and processing strategies, and methods for restructuring a problem. Taylor (1974) adds to this class ification scheme four basic types of problems: resource specification, goal specification, creative problems, and well structured problems (see fig. 1).Problem types are identified by the decision maker’s familiarity with the three subparts of the problem. Taylor discusses what types of decision strategies are appropriate for each of these problem categories, for example, brainstorming for creative problems and operations research type solutions for well structured problems. Howell and Burnett (1978) recently developed a taxonomy of tasks 16 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring Problem Type Initial State decision problems Terminal State Transformation Type 1, Resource Specification Problems UnfamllIar Type 11, Goal Specification Problems Type III, Creative ProblemsType IV, Well-Structured Problems Varies Varies Unfamihar Varies Vanes Familiar Unfamiliar Familiar Fig. 1. Types of problem structures (Taylor 1974). and types of events with the intention of assessing cognitive options for processing probabilistic information for each taxonomy element. Uncertain events are classified according to three dichotomies: frequentistic – not frequentistic; known data generator – unknown data generator; process external – internal to the observer. Task characteristics are complexity, setting (e. g. , real life us. laboratory), span of events, and response mode characteristics. For each vent/task combination Howell and Burnett discuss how different cognitive processes may be operating when making probability judgments. For example, in estimating frequentistic events with unknown data generators, availability heuristics may be operative. Brown and Ulvila (1977) present the most comprehensive attempt yet to classify decision problems. Their taxonomy includes well over 100 possible characteristics. Decision problems are defined according to their substance and the decision process involved. Substantive taxonomic characteristics are mainly derived from th e analytic properties of the situation, i. . , amount and type of uncertainty, and amount D. von Winterfeldt/Structuring decision problems 71 and types of stakes, types of alternatives. Only a few elements of this part of the taxonomy can be directly related to problem content, i. e. , current vs. contingent decision, operating vs. information act. The taxonomic elements of the decision process refer mainly to the constraints of the decision maker, e. g. , reaction time, available resources. The taxonomy by Brown and Ulvila incorporates most previous problem taxonomies which tried to define decision problems by categories derived from decision analysis.These include taxonomies by von Winterfeldt and Fischer (1975), Miller et al. (1976), and Vlek and Wagenaar (1979). To be useful for problem identification, the above taxonomies should lead an analyst to a class of problems which has characteristics similar to the decision problem under investigation. Unfortunately, the existing probl em taxonomies are ill-suited for this purpose, because they use mainly analytic categories to distinguish problems. Such categories are derivatives of the decision analytic models and concepts, rather than characteristics of real world problems. For example, the analytic categorizations f problems into risky vs. riskless classes is based on the distinction between riskless and risky preference models. Analytic categories create more or less empty classes with little or no correspondence to real problems. For example, none of the above taxonomies allows distinguishing between a typical siting problem and a typical regulation problem in a meaningful way. It appears that substantive rather than analytic characteristics identify real problems. Substantive characteristics are generalized content features of the problems belonging to the respective class. For example, a substantive eature of regulation problems is the involvement of three generic decision makers: the regulator, the regula ted, and the beneficiary of regulation. To become useful for problem identification, taxonomies need to include such substantive problem characteristic& Methods for selecting an overall analytic structure Most taxonomies include some ideas or principles for matching lems with analytic structures or models. MacCrimmon and attempted to match their basic type of decision problems with tive solution strategies, Howell and Burnett speculated on which tive processes may be invoked by typical task/event classes in probTaylor ognicogniproba- 18 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems bility assessment; von Winterfeldt and Fischer identified for each problem category appropriate multiattribute utility models. But in none of these papers explicit matching principles or criteria for the goodness of a match are given. Rather, matches are created on the basis of a priori reasoning about the appropriateness of a strategy, model, or a cognitive process for a particular class of decision problems. Brown and Ulvila (1977) attempted to make this selection process more explicit by creating an analytic taxonomy in correspondence with the problem taxonomy.The analytic taxonomy classifies the main options an analyst may have in structuring and modeling a decision problem. The taxonomy includes factors such as user’s options (amount to be expended on the analysis), input structure (type of uncertainty), elicitation techniques (type of probability elicitation). These categories identify options, both at a general level (optimization, simulation, and Bayesian inference models) and special techniques (e. g. , reference gambles, or Delphi technique). To match problems with analytic approaches Brown and Ulvila created a third taxonomy, called the â€Å"performance measure taxonomy†.This taxonomy evaluates analytic approaches on attributes like â€Å"time and cost measures†, â€Å"quality of the option generation process†, â€Å"quality of communicat ion or implementation†, etc. Different problem classes have different priority profiles on the performance measure categories. Similarly, different analytic approaches have different scoring profiles on the performance measures. The analytic approach chosen should perform well on the priority needs of a particular problem, Brown and Ulvila discuss the ‘goodness of fit’ of several analytic approaches to a number of decision situations in terms of these performance measures.For example, they argue that a contingency type analysis (an element of the analytic taxonomy) is appropriate for decision problems that occur repeatedly and require a fast response (elements of the decision situation taxonomy) because contingency type analysis allows fast calculations (elements of the performance measure taxonomy). Several authors have developed logical selection schemes, which can identify an appropriate analytic approach or model based on selected MacCrimmon (1973), for exampl e, developed a problem features. sequential method for selecting an appropriate approach for multiattrib&e evaluation.The first question to be answered is whether the purpose of the analysis is normative or descriptive. Further questions D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 79 include whether the type of problem has occurred frequently before, if there are multiple decision makers with conflicting preferences, and whether alternatives are available or have to be designed. All questions are of the yes-no type and together create a flow chart for selecting among 19 possible approaches. For example, if the purpose of the analysis is normative, if direct assessments of preferences (e. g. ratings) are valid and reliable, and if the type of problem has frequently occurred before, regression models or ANOVA type approaches would be appropriate. Johnson and Huber (1977) and Kneppreth et al. (1977) discuss a three step procedure for selecting a multiattribute utility assessment approach. In the first step, the characteristics of the multiattribute problem are listed, including discreteness vs. continuity of dimensions, uncertainty vs. no uncertainty, and independence considerations. In the second step the evaluation situation is characterized on the basis of judgments about the task complexity, mount of training required for assessment, face validity required, assessment time, accuracy and flexibility. In the third and final step the profile describing the evaluation problem is compared with a profile characterizing five different generic assessment models or methods. The technique that best matches the situation profile is selected. For example, lottery assessment methods and models would be appropriate if the evaluation problem involves uncertainties, does not require high face validity, and allows for a good amount of training of the assessor. Both the taxonomy riented and the sequential selection methods for matching problems and analysis suffer from c ertain drawbacks. As stated earlier, problem characteristics used in taxonomies typically neglect substantive aspects of the decision problem. Consequently, an analyst may choose an analytic approach based on a match with a spuriously defined problem class. For example, when facing a medical diagnosis problem, an analyst may find that some detailed substantive characteristics of the problem (e. g. , the way doctors process information, the physical format of information, etc. ) suggest a signal detection structure.Yet, as far as I can see, none of the above matching processes would directly lead to such a structure. Advances in formalizing structures Influence diagrams are a recent development in decision analytic structuring (see Miller et al. 1976). Influence diagrams draw a graphical 80 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems picture of the way variables in a decision model influence each other, without superimposing any hierarchical structure. For example, a decision v ariable (price) may ‘influence’ a state variable (demand) and thus ‘influence’ a final state (successful introduction of a new product into market). Influence diagrams have been conceived mainly as an initial pre-structuring tool to create a cognitive map of a decision maker’s or expert’s view of a decision problem. In the present stage influence diagrams are turned into hierarchical structures and analyzed with traditional tools. But research is now underway at SRI International on the use of influence diagrams directly in EV or EU computations. Another generalization of the tree approach is Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) developed, for example, in Warfield (1974) and Sage (1977). In interpretative structural modeling, matrix and graph heory notions are used to formally represent a decision problem. First, all elements of the problem are listed and an element by element matrix is constructed. The structure of the relationships betwe en elements is then constructed by filling in the matrix with numerical judgments reflecting the strength of the relationship, or by simply making O-l judgments about the existence/non-existence of a relation. Computer programs can then be used to convert the matrix into a graph or a tree that represents the problem. Influence diagrams, value trees, decision trees, and inference trees can all be thought of as special cases of ISM.For example, in value tree construction, the analyst may begin with a rather arbitrary collection of value relevant aspects, attributes, outcomes, targets and objectives. Using alternative semantic labels for the relationships between these elements (e. g. , ‘similar’, ‘part of’), an element by element matrix can be filled. Finally, the analyst can explore whether a particular relational structure leads to useful goal tree structure. Besides these generalizations of traditional hierarchical structuring tools, several refinements of special structuring techniques have been suggested, particularly for evaluation roblems. Keeney and Raiffa (1976) devoted a whole chapter to the problem of structuring a value tree. They suggest a strategy of constructing a value tree by beginning with general objectives and disaggregating by using a pure explication logic (i. e. , what is meant by this general objective? ). This approach has previously been advocated by Miller (1970) and others. Mannheim and Hall (1967) suggest in addition the possibility of disaggregating general D. van Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 81 objectives according to a means-ends logic (how can this general objective be achieved? ).Other disaggregation logics (problem oriented, process oriented, etc. ) could be analyzed in the ISM context. There are a number of papers that suggest more empirical or synthetic approaches to value tree construction. Of particular interest is a repertory grid technique described by Humphreys and Humphreys (1975) and Humphreys and Wisuda (1979). In this procedure similarity and dissimilarity judgments are used to span the value dimensions of alternatives. Several computer aids have been developed recently to aid decision makers or experts in structuring decision problems. Some of these are discussed in Kelly ( 1978), and Humphreys (1980).These aids typically rely on empty structuring concepts (decison trees, value trees, inference trees, or influence diagrams) and they guide the decision maker/expert in the analytic formulation of his/her problem. Special aids are OPINT for moderately complex problems which can easily be formulated into a decision tree or matrix structure, the decision triangle aid for sequential decision problems with a focus on changing probabilities, and EVAL for multiattribute utility problems (Kelly 1978). In addition to these structuring and assessment aids, there are now computerized aids under development xploiting the idea of influence diagrams and fuzzy set theory . Influence diagrams, ISM, and computer aids are indicative of a trend in structuring research and perhaps in decision analysis as a whole. This trend turns the fundamentally empty structures of decision trees, goal trees, and inference trees into more operational, computerized elicitation tools, without adding problem substance. There are clear advantages to such an approach: a wide range of applicability, flexibility, user involvement, speed, limited training, and feedback, to name only a few. It also reduces the demands on the decision analyst’s time.There is, of course, the other extreme, the prestructured, precanned problem specific version of decision analysis applicable to essentially identical situations. A military example is Decisions and Designs Inc. % SURVAV model (Kelly 1978) which applies to routing decisions for ships to avoid detections by satellites. Such a structure and model can routinely be implemented with almost no additional training. In turn it gives u p generalizability. Neither extreme is totally satisfactory. Empty general structures must consider each problem from scratch. Substantive specific struc- 82 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring ecision problems tures have limited generalizability. The middleground of problem driven but still generalizable structures and models needs to be filled. Problem taxonomies may help here by identifying generic classes of problems. But as was discussed earlier, existing taxonomies are ill equipped for this task since they neglect substantive problem features. The question of filling in the middleground between ‘too general’ structures and ‘too specific’ structures thus becomes a question of searching for generalizable content features of problems that identify generic classes of decisions.These generic classes can then be modelled and structured by â€Å"prototypical decision analytic structures† which are specific enough to match the generalizable problem feature s and general enough to transfer easily to other problems of the same class. At the present stage of research this search process will necessarily be inductive because too little is known about problem substance to develop a problem driven taxonomy and matching analytic structures. An inductive research strategy may attempt to crystallize the generalizable features of a specific application, . or compare a number of similar applications (e. . , with siting problems), or simply use a phenomenological approach to delineate problem classes in a specific application area (e. g. , regulation). In the following two sections some possibilities for developing prototypical decision analytic structures will be discussed. An example of developing a prototypical structure The following example describes the structuring process in the development of a decision aiding system for environmental standard setting and regulation. The work was performed as part of IIASA’s (see fn. 2) standard se tting project (see von Winterfeldt et al. 1978), which had oth descriptive and normative intentions (how do regulators presently set standards? how can analytic models help in the standard setting process? ). Because of this wide approach of the standard setting project, the research group was not forced to produce workable models for specific decision problems quickly. Consequently, its members could afford and were encouraged to spend a substantial amount of time on structuring. Inputs into the structuring process were: – retrospective case studies of specific mental protection agencies; standard processes of environ- national Railway Corporation energylevelmeasure 3 measurefor aeroplanenoise 1 Japanese dB’ ‘SO†, AT SOURCE RULES ROUTING USE SCHEMES SCHEMES LAND Fig. 2. Regulatory alternatives for Shinkansen noise pollution. IMPLEMENTATION AND MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENT /I ALTERNATIVE OF HOUSE IN HOUSE IN FRONT lMldB(A) WCPNLl MEAS†6iiA~â€Å"> 30 †“ d&i) MEASURED LEO’ EQUIP- TION FICA- SPECI- MENT SPE:D CONTROL RES+RlCT TIMES OPERATION 84 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems – previous models suggested for standard setting; – field studies of two ongoing standard setting processes (oil pollution and noise standards).In addition, the structuring process benefited much from continuing discussions with leading members of environmental agencies in the United Kingdom, Norway, Japan and the United States. Although the structuring effort was geared towards decision analysis, substantial inputs were given by an environmental economist (D. Fischer), an environmental modeller (S. Ikeda), a game theorist (E. Hopfinger), and two physicists (W. Hafele and R. Avenhaus), all members of IIASA’s standard setting research team. The overall question was: how can standard setting problems best be formulated nto a decision analytic format and model such that the model is specific enough to capture the ma in features of a particular standard setting problem and, at the same time, general enough to apply to a variety of such problems? In other words, what is a prototypical decision analytic structure for standard setting? Since the regulator or regulatory agency was presumed to be the main client of such models, the initial structuring focussed on regulatory alternatives and objectives. In one attempt a wide but shallow alternative tree was conceived which included a variety of regulatory ptions ranging from emission standards, land use schemes, to direct interventions. An example for noise pollution standards is presented in fig, 2. Coupled with an appropriate tree of regulatory objectives, a decision analysis could conceivably be performed by evaluating each alternative with a simple MAU procedure. A possible value tree is presented in fig. 3 for the same noise pollution problem. This simple traditional structure was rejected since regulators seldom have to evaluate such a wide rang e of alternatives and because it does not capture the interaction between the regulators and the regulated.Also, regulators are much concerned about monitoring and implementation of standards, an aspect which a simple MAU structure does not address. The second structure was a narrow but deep decision tree, exemplified in fig. 4 for an oil pollution problem. In addition to the regulator’s alternatives, this tree includes responses of the industry to standards, possible detection of standards violations, and subsequent sanctions. This structure was geared at fine tuning the regulators’ definitions of D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 85 of hospitals, schools, retwement homes MINIMIZE f residential life DISTURBANCE other / EEggF M,NIM,zE HEALTH Hearing EFFECTS < PsychologIcal Synergetic (aggravation of existing illness) Investment for pollution equipment MINIMIZE COST ~—–< Operation of pollution eqwpment RAILWAY CORP. OBJECTIVES Speed MAXIMIZ E SERVICE -< Aeliablllty ClXlllOrt wth mtemational regulation CONSISTENCY OF REGULATION with other national â€Å"cise standards (car, mr. other trams) POLITICAL OBJECTIVES -/ Enwonmental policy AGREEMENT POLICY WITH GOVERNMENT Transportation policy t Ewnomtc growih policy Fig. 3. Regulatory objectives for noise pollution control. he standard level (maximum emission, etc. ) and monitoring and sanction schemes, and to assessing environmental impacts. The structure is specific in terms of the regulatory alternatives. But by considering industry responses as random events, and by leaving out responses of environmental groups, it fails to address a major concern of regulatory decision making. The third structure was a three decision maker model, in which the regulator, the industry/developer and the environmentalists/impactees are represented by separate decision analytic models (see von Winterfeldt 1978).A signal detection type model links the regulator’s decision through poss ible detections of violations and sanction schemes to the the industry model. An event tree of pollution generating events and effects links the developer’s decisions to the impactee model (see fig. 5). The model can be run as follows: the regulator’s alternatives are left 86 EPA average UK aver,, UK maximum Norway average DEFINITIONS OF OIL EMISSION STANDARDS parts per million ofoil No pollution – Grawty Separator c&ugated Plate Inter- equipment Gas Flotation Filters ceptrr n ob STANDARD LEVEL in watt r ofoil POLLUTION EQUIPMENT PERFORMANCE o00 patis per milhon in water n First vidabon of No udat#on of standard occurs at tulle DETECTION STATES standard dunng all opemons n t POLLUTION EQUIPMENT DECISION BY THE OIL INDUSTRY PENALTY No pdlution equipment Gravity separator Gas Flotatux corrugated Plate bltw- Pais Filters EQUIPMENT PERFORMANCE per million n Second wdation POLLUTION EQUIPMENT DECISION BY THE OIL INDUSTRY No more vidations DETECTION STATES Find eflect s~ on environment (pdlution levels) FINAL EFFECTS – industry (cost) – regulatlx (political) Fig. 4. Segment of a decision tree for setting oil pollution standards. A standard is usually defined by the number of samples to be taken, how many samples form an average, and how many exemptions from a violation are allowed. For example, the EPA average definition is as follows: four samples are to be taken daily, the average of the four samples may not exceed the standard level (e. g. , 50 ppm) more than twice during any consecutive 30 day period. 87 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems REGULATORY 1 DECISION MODEL I U R (0 1 DETECTION OF REGULATION VIOLATION DEVELOPER – SANCTIONS POLLUTION GENERATING EVENTS I IMPACTEE DECISION MODELPOLLUTION EFFECTS Fig. 5. Schematic representation of the regulator-developer-impactee model. 1: variable standard of the regulator d(r): expected utility maximizing treatment decision of the developer a[d(r)]: expected utility maximizing decision of the impactees variable. The developer’s response is optimized in terms of minimizing expected investment, operation, and detection costs or maximizing equivalent expected utilities. Finally, the impactees are assumed to maximize their expected utility conditional on the regulator’s and the developer’s decision. At this point the model stops.The structure only provides for a Pareto optimality analysis of the three expected utilities accruing to the generic decision units. This model allows some detailed analyses of the probabilities and value aspects of the standard setting problem, and it proved feasible in a pilot application to chronic oil discharge standards (see von Winterfeldt et al. 1978). Regulators who were presented with this model, con- 88 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems REGULATOR’S CHOICE Fig. 6. Game theoretic structure of the regulation I problem. sidered it meaningful, and it offered several insights into the standard setting problematique.Yet, there was a feeling among analysts and regulators that the static character of the model and the lack of feedback loops required improvement. The final structure considered was a game theoretic extension of the three decision maker model. The structure of the game theoretic model is presented in fig. 6. In this model the standard setting process in explicitly assumed to be dynamic, and all feedbacks are considered. In addition, transitions from one stage to another are probabilistic. The model was applied in a seven stage version in a pilot study of noise standard setting for rapid trains (Hapfinger and von Winterfeldt 1978).The game theoretic model overcomes the criticisms of the static decision analytic model, but in turn it gives up the possibility for fine tuning and detailed modeling of trade-offs and probabilities. Considering such aspects in detail would have made the running of the model impossible. Therefore, relatively arbitrar y (linear) utility functions and simple structures of transition probabilities have to be assumed. Although the appropriateness of the different structures was not explicitly addressed in this study, two main criteria come to mind when judging structures: representativeness of the problem and manageability for further analysis.Each of these criteria can be further broken down. For example, representativeness includes judgments about the adequacy of the structural detail, and coverage of important problem aspects. The overall conclusions of many discussion with regulators, analysts, D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 89 industry representatives, and the results of the pilot applications led us to accept the third structure as a prototypical decision analytic structure for relatively routine emission standard setting problems. The model is presently considered for further applications in emission tandard setting and an extension to safety standards will be explored. Tow ards a kit of prototypical decision analytical structures Not every decision analysis can afford to be as broad and time consuming as the previous study. Decision analysis usually has a much more specific orientation towards producing a decision rather than developing a generic structure. Still I think that it would be helpful if analysts were to make an effort in addressing the question of generalizability when modeling a specific problem, and in extracting those features of the problem and the model that are transferable. Such an inductive pproach could be coupled with more research oriented efforts and with examinations of similarities among past applications. Such an approach may eventually fill the middleground between too specific and too general models and structures. But rather than filling this middleground with analytically specific but substantively empty structures and models, it would be filled with prototypical structures and models such as the above regulation model, more refined signal detection models, siting models, etc. In the following, four typical classes of decision problems (siting, contingency planning, budget allocation, and regulation) are examined nd requirements for prototypical structures for these problems are discussed. Facility siting clearly is a typical decision problem. Keeney and other decision analysts have investigated this problem in much detail and in a variety of contexts (see the examples in Keeney and Raiffa 1976). A typical aspect of such siting problems is sequential screening from candidate areas to possible sites, to a preferred set, to final site specific evaluations. Another aspect is the multiobjective nature with emphasis on generic classes of objectives: investment and operating cost, economic benefits, environmental impacts, social impacts, and political onsiderations. Also, the process of organizing, collecting, and evaluating information is similar in many siting decisions. Thus, it should be possible to develop a prototypical structure for facility siting decisions, 90 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems simply by assembling the generalizable features of past applications [ 31. Contingency planning is another recurring and typical problem. Decision and Design Inc. addressed this problem in the military context, but it also applies to planning for actions in the case of disasters such as Liquid Natural Gas plant explosions or blowouts from oil platforms.Substantive aspects that are characteristic of contingency planning are: strong central control of executive organs, numerous decisions have to be made simultaneously, major events can drastically change the focus of the problem, no cost or low cost information comes in rapidly, and organizational problems may impede information flows and actions. Although, at first glance, decision trees seem to be a natural model for contingency planning, a prototypical decision model would require modifying a strictly sequential appr oach to accommodate these aspects.For example, the model should be flexible enough to allow for the ‘unforeseeable’ (rapid capacity to change the model structure), it should have rapid information updating facilities without overstressing the value of information (since most information is free), and it should attend to fine tuning of simultaneous actions and information interlinkages. Budget allocation to competing programs is another typical problem. In many such problems different programs attempt to pursue similar objectives, and program mix and balance has to be considered besides the direct benefits of single programs.Another characteristic of budgeting decisions is the continuous nature of the decision variable and the constraint of the total budget. MAU looks like a natural structure for budget allocation decision since it can handle the program evaluation aspect (see Edwards et al. 1976). But neither the balance issue nor the constrained and continuous characte ristics of the budget are appropriately adressed by MAU. A prototypical decision analytic structure would model an evaluation of the budget apportionment, or the mix of programs funded at particular levels.Such a structure would perhaps exploit dependencies or independencies among programs much like independence assumption for preferences. Regulation covers a class of decision problems with a number of recurrent themes: three generic groups involved (regulators, regulated, [,3] I believe that. Keeney’s forthcoming book on siting energy facilities is a major step in that direction. Of. course, it could also be a step in the opposite direction. Or in no direction at all (see also first asterisked footnote at the beginning of the article). D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems 91 beneficiaries of regulation), importance f monitoring and sanction schemes, usually opposing objectives of the regulated and the benefrciaries of regulation, and typically highly political o bjectives of the regulator. In the previous section, the more specific regulation problem of standard setting was discussed, and a prototypical decision analytic structure was suggested. A decision analytic structure for regulation in general can build on the main features of the standard setting model. This list could be extended to include private investment decisions, product mix selection, resource development, diagnostic problems, etc. But the four examples hopefully re sufficient to demonstrate how prototypical decision analytic structuring can be approached in general. In my opinion, such an approach to structuring could be at least as useful for the implementation of decision analysis as computerization of decision models. Besides the technical advantages of trahsferability, prototypical decision analytic structures would serve to show that decision analysts are truly concerned about problems. Today decision analysis books have chapters such as ‘simple decisions under uncertainty’ and ‘multiattribute evaluation problems’. I am looking forward to chapters such as ‘siting industrial acilities’, ‘pollution control management’, and ‘contingency planning’. References Brown, R. V. and J. W. Ulvila, 1977. Selecting analytic approaches for decision situations. (Revised edition. ) Vol. I: Overview of the methodology. Technical report no. TR77-7-25, Decisions and Designs, Inc. , McLean, VA. Brown, R. V. , A. S. Kahr and C. Peterson, 1974. Decision analysis for the manager. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston. Edwards, W. , M. Guttentag and K. Snapper, 1976. A decision-theoretic approach to evaluation research. In: E. L. Streuning and M. Guttentag (eds. ), Handbook of evaluation research, I. London: Sage.Fischer, D. W. and D. von Winterfeldt, 1978. Setting standards for chronic oil discharges in the North Sea. Journal of Environmental Management 7, 177-199. Gardiner, P. C. and A. Ford, in press. A merger of simulation and evaluation for applied policy research in social systems. In: K. Snapper (ed. ), Practical evaluation: case studies in simplifying complex decision problems. Washington, DC: Information Resource Press. Hogarth, R. M. , C. Michaud and J. -L. Mery, 1980. Decision behavior in urban development: a methodological approach and substantive considerations. Acta Psychologica 45, 95-117. Hiipfmger, E. and R. Avenhaus, 1978.A game theoretic framework for . dynamic standard setting procedures. IIASA-RM-78. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. 92 D. von Winterfeldt /Structuring decision problems Hopfinger, E. and D. von Winterfeldt, 1979. A dynamic model for setting railway noise standards. In: 0. Moeschlin and D. Pallaschke (eds. ), Game theory and related topics. Amsterdam: North-Holland. pp. 59-69. Howell, W. C. and S. A. Burnett, 1978. Uncertainty measurement: a cognitrve taxonomy. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 22 ,45-68. Humphreys, P. C. , 1980. Decision aids: aiding decisions. In: L.Sjoberg, T. Tyszka and J. A. Wise (eds), Decision analyses and decision processes, 1. Lund: Doxa (in press). Humphreys, P. C. and A. R. Humphreys, 1975. An investigation of subjective preference orderings for multiattributed alternatives. In: D. Wendt and C. Vlek (eds. ), Utility, probability, and human decision making. Dordrecht, Holland: Reidel, pp. 119-133. Humphreys, P. C. and A. Wisudha, 1979. MAUD – an interactive computer program for the structuring, decomposition and recomposition of preferences between multiattributed alternatives. Technical report 79-2, Decision Analysis Unit, Brunel University, Uxbridge, England.Johnson, E. M. and G. P. Huber, 1977. The technology of utility assessment. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, vol. SMCJ, 5. Keeney, R. L. , in press. Siting of energy facilities. New York: Academic Press. Keeney, R. L. and H. Raiffa, 1976. Decisions with multiple objec tives: preferences and value tradeoffs. New York: Wiley. Kelly, III, C. W. , 1978. Decision aids: engineering science and clinical art. Technical Report, Decisions and Designs, Inc. , McLean, VA. Kelly, C. and S. Barclay, 1973. A general Bayesian model for hierarchical inference. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 10, 388-403.Kneppreth, N. P. , D. H. Hoessel, D. H. Gustafson, and E. M. Johnson, 1977. A strategy for selecting a worth assessment technique. Technical paper 280, U. S. Army Research Institute for Behavioral and Social Sciences, Arlington, VA. MacCrimmon, K. R. , 1973. An overview of multiple criteria decision making. In: J. L. Cochrane and M. Zeleney (eds. ), Multiple criteria decision making. 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The Story of Qiu Ju - Essay Example In reaction, the chief beat Qinglai up and kicked him in the groin, thus causing the injuries. At first, Qiu Ju seeks an apology from the village chief for beating up her husband, reasoning that the act was not right. The chief refuses to give an apology because he believes that if he does, he will lose face. Qiu Ju, adamant that justice should be given to her husband, brings her case to their village public service bureau or PBS. The village PBS orders the chief to pay Qinlang 200 yuan to reimburse the medical expenses as well as wages lost to Qinlang while he is recovering from his injuries. The chief shells out the money as ordered, but he refuses to make the apologies Qiu Ju requires. Qiu Ju becomes unhappy by the chief's refusal and brings the case to the district PBS. The district PBS issues the same decision, but the chief, while willing to pay the money, remains adamant about not giving the apology. Qiu Ju then brings the matter to the city PBS, then sues the village chief but loses the case. Still unfazed, Qiu Ju afterwards makes an appeal to the intermediary bureau. In the meantime, beset by the gossip being whispered in their community, Qinlang himself asks Qiu Ju to stop pursuing the matter and to just let it go. While awaiting the result of the trial, Qiu Ju goes into labor and her condition becomes delicate. She receives assistance from the village chief himself in bringing her to the hospital, and this somehow heals the rift between herself and the chief. However, at the celebration of her newborn son's turning a month old, the chief is arrested by the police, and Qiu Ju fails to stop them. Basically, the film talks about the roundabout pursuit of justice in Maoist China. It is set in rural China, probably during the late 1970s or early 1980s, as hinted by the references to the one-child policy instituted in that country in 1979 (Wikipedia, 2002b). Actual locations were used in filming the movie, and these locations depict mostly the poverty and squalor Chinese citizens, especially in the countryside, were subjected to during that time. The fact that the story is also set in the winter season only emphasizes how difficult living conditions were then. China at that time was still reeling from the effects of the Cultural Revolution (Wikipedia, 2002a). Economy is beginning to recover, at least from the viewpoint of the city folk, where buildings are well-planned and the roadways are paved. Such is not the same in the countryside, however, and it is grueling to watch Qiu Ju travel on foot, by cart and by hitchhiking down the long and winding dirt roads with her swollen belly and with only her sister-in-law for a companion. These journeys to and from her village took a toll on her, eventually making her pregnancy and childbirth complicated and nearly costing Qiu Ju her life. These inaccessible roads, however, did not seem to hinder officials from the public service bureau from coming to Qiu Ju's village to investigate her case. Entire families comprising of parents, grandparents and children live in two-room houses along with their pets, and perhaps livestock, bringing into question issues on health and hygiene. People from the countr yside are distinguishable by their clothes: as depicted in the movie, they only

Green Business Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Green Business - Assignment Example I have decided to install some renewable source of power that does not require any fossil fuels such as coal, petrol or diesel. Also by using such renewable source of power, I will help reduce the load of CO2 from the environment. For renewable source of energy, it has been decided to install solar PV cell based system that not only meets my energy requirements but will produce surplus electricity that will be sold at the prevailing rates to the electrical grid. The advantage is that the PV based solar energy is covered for feed-in-tariffs for the generation of renewable power and that is how this project can generate decent revenue even after meeting captive requirements. Producing and Selling Green Energy The technology selected is Solar PV cell based with inverter, batteries and meters. PV cells or in scientific world known as photovoltaic is heart of the system. The benefit with such technology is that it is eco-friendly–without any harmful effects on environment. It requi res only one-time capital investment and there is no operating cost involved. Maintenance cost is hardly any except batteries that need to be replaced only after 3-4 year period. The photovoltaic cells are made of silicon microchips or wafers and due to their unique property they absorb solar energy to produce electrical energy. Higher the solar energy, more the electrical current or power it can produce. The direct current can be converted into AC current by the equipment called inverter and the power can be stored in the array of batteries. A typical PV based solar energy system can be shown as per the following diagram. Source: http://homepower.com/basics/solar/#MainDCDisconnect Project Report for PV based Solar System Installation Capacity- 10kWh Name of the Company Producing PV Solar System 1. Freesource Energy, UK 2. Techno Sun, UK 3. First Solar, US 4. Solar Europa, UK The plan is to produce 10 kW-hour of renewable source of energy with captive consumption of 5kW-hour and bal ance will be sold to the electric grid at the prevailing rates. Costs The current cost of 2.77kW-hour system is found to be ?11,000 (including VAT at 5%). The investment required for 10kW-hour system is approximately ? 45,000. (Solar Electricity) Consumption The Production unit will consume 2kW and balance 8 kW will be sold to the grid through a scheme called feed-in-tariffs. Understanding Feed-in-Tariffs The Feed-in-Tariffs are available to those who own and produce renewable source of energy. The tariffs for Solar PV based unit for 4-10kW production unit are 37.8p/kWh of energy. The benefit is available for the duration of 25 years. (Tariff Levels†¦ 2011) Revenue Calculation A) By Selling Surplus Power The surplus power that is available is 8kW and that can be sold to grid. Considering daily production for about 12 hours, the per day revenue will incur 37.8?8?12 =?36.28 Considering 150 days of solar energy production in a year (number of days solar energy available) it will g enerate revenue of 150?36.28= ?5443 B) Saving Incurred by Captive Consumption Captive consumption is again 2kW and since no operating cost is involved to produce it, whatever payment is made in buying grid electricity is now saved. Considering conventional average grid electricity charges of 10p per kWh, and working of 10 hours in a day, per day saving comes to 2?10?10=?2 Again, assuming available benefit for 150 days (number of days s

Case Study analysis in Strategic Management Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 3000 words

Analysis in Strategic Management - Case Study Example In recent years they acquired 'Grupo Empresarial Bavaria.' Today SABMiller is present in various high growth markets like Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa. It has also maintained presence in matured markets like USA and Western Europe. Its brand portfolio includes Castle, Miller Lite, Miller Genuine Draft, Snow, Peroni Nastro Azzurro and Pilsner Urquell. The first part of this report explains the strategic positioning SABMiller is in different markets like South Africa, Asia, Eastern & Western Europe, USA, Latin America and Africa. It discusses the core competencies and capabilities of SABMiller and also the stakeholder's expectations. The second part looks at the future implications of its strategy .In the last part various tools used for analysis of this case study have been discussed. Corporate strategy refers to the overarching strategy of the diversified firm. Such a corporate strategy answers the questions of the business the firm should operate in and how does this business helps in improving the core competencies of the firm as a whole. (David, 1989)It is the sum total of a company's goals, objectives and its plan for pursuing those purposes. (R, 2008)From these definations we can conclude that we need to analyse SABMiller's business environment , core competancies & capabilities and stakeholder expectations to identify it's strategic position. (KR, 1971) Business Environmental Analysis Using PESTEL , Porter's Five forces and SWOT In 2009 , SABMiller has been operating world wide.It has its presence in both developing and mature markets.Due to its presence in such varied markets ,its strategy in different markets has been analysed differently. South Africa South African market has been a monopoly of SABMiller. (SABMiller, 2009)Although this market is maturing with little growth potential but the customers are moving towards more premium brands thus increasing the profitability of the firm.HIV/AIDS poses a great threat in South African market.It is a huge threat in terms of avalability of work force but the greater threat is that the disposable income of the people is likely to decrease which in turn will effect SABMiller's sales and its profitability. Africa(exclusing South Africa) SABMiller has its presence in Tanzania , Zambia , Mozambique , Angola , Bostwana and Uganda.There is huge potential for growth is these areas propelled by broader distribution and clear segmentation strategy.However the political landscape in these areas is not idle.They also trade in soft currencies thus increasing the business risk as seen in Bostwana.African market is perceived by many as a lot of risk in the Portfolio of SABMiller and might lead to lose of confidence from the company's stakeholders. Asia and Eastern Europe Both these markets are highly fragmented and developing.People have found their disposable incomes to be rising which gives SABMiller a great incentive and great opportunity in these markets.The

The Go-Between Essay Example for Free

The Go-Between Essay The short story †The Go-Between† is written by Ali Smith in 2009, to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the United Nations’ adoption of the â€Å"Universal Declaration of Human Rights†. The declaration consists of thirty rights, which symbolise all the rights we, as human beings, should be obligated to have. Smith has found her inspiration in Article 13, the right to freedom of movement. The story takes place in Morocco in North Africa, and partly in Europe. Throughout the story, we follow a 33-year-old man – who is the protagonist. We never hear the name of this man, but he speaks of himself as â€Å"Professor me†. Our main character is a so-called â€Å"border crosser† – he helps refugees cross the border between Morocco and Spain – and he is also a â€Å"messenger† between the refugees in Morocco and the French Doctors in Spain – you could call him the â€Å"go-between†. He helps the French doctors heal all the wounded people; a man whose legs had been broken under a train, a woman who had been raped and a little boy who was dying – all mentioned to make the reader sympathize even more for these people. He is a former microbiologist and has worked in a university – this shows that he has gained a lot of knowledge and is indeed a clever man. His education is what has enabled him to get help to those who need it once they cross the border, by being able to speak the language of the French doctor, who he says can be Italian, Spanish, French, English; he says â€Å"I speak these and also some others†. (p. 2, l. 32) He describes his physical self with the following characteristics â€Å"I’m a small, slight man. I’m not a big man. I’m lean and slight†. (p. 4, l. 120) I think he is describing his physical self in this way because it humanizes him. The reader may begin to think that he is some kind of super hero, helping all of these refugees cross- but he is just a normal person, doing what he can to help. The 33-year-old man is definitely a very â€Å"Determined Professor Me†, when it comes to helping people across or under the border as he is willing to go as far as losing the top of his ear as well as his 3rd finger. Despite the fact that it is dangerous to cross the border, our main character jokes about it; â€Å"I lost the top part of my ear on the fence. The top part of my ear is in Europe†. (p. 1, l. 3) This makes him seem quite like The Joker, but despite his jokes, he is actually quite scared of losing more body parts, which is shown in the nightmares he gets, when he sleeps. It is very obvious that the story is meant to show how horrible refugees used to be treated. If we read between the lines, we can tell that the main character has had a rough past. As a â€Å"Go-between†, not only has he seen, but also experienced horrible thing. â€Å"They slashed the tents so they were useless when it rained. They burned the blankets () they took all the food. They collected up some of the people from the camp when they went into the bush to get food, and drove them to the desert in a truck, and left them there.† (p. 2, l. 54 – 58) I believe this is one of the reasons why the main character is so passionate about helping people – he wants to stand up against the police, and this is his way of doing so – regardless to his own feelings about Europe of course. Despite his hate towards the police, he still dreams about Europe – about â€Å"walking down the big streets of Madrid with their fine stately buildings†. (p. 4, l. 112) Not only in this section, but also throughout the whole story, the main character shares his passion and confusion for Europe. â€Å"You see those lights across the bay? That’s Europe! You see that fence? The other side of it is Europe.†. (p. 1, l. 2) For him, Europe is a symbol of freedom, hope, greatness and possibilities. And yet, he would still like to back to where he came from, but he can’t. â€Å"My blindness is for whats behind me, I would like to go back. I want to go back. But I have to go forward. I can’t go back. Backs not possible for me. (p. 3, l. 74 – 76) – perhaps going back isn’t possible for him anymore, because he has nothing to go back to. Nothing except a shirt, the Cameroon team colors! It seems like the fence – and helping refugees cross it, is the only thing he has left. In the end, when he’s finally on the Spanish side of the border, he just stays very close to the fence, instead of getting as far away as possible; to maintain the â€Å"connection† he has with the fence. He’s also trying to hide his previous self, so nobody will notice him when he walks down the street, so he keep his ears covered and his hand folded so that no one will notice the loss in it: â€Å"I wear my hat down over my ears. I keep my hand folded so no one sees the loss in it.† (p. 4, l. 124 – 125) The story is a written in a first person point of view and the go-between is the narrator. The story is told in a very special way – and it can be read two different ways. Either the narrator is telling the reader about his experiences as a border crosser like a conversation. E.g. I was telling you about.. (p. 3, l. 81) Or he has simply gone insane from all the horrors he has seen, and is talking to himself – he also repeats his words quite often; â€Å"we had our own law system, and our own police. We had our own police!. (p. 2, l. 60) It is very confusing for the reader, because it almost seems like it’s his stream of thoughts we read, because they are very unstructured and messy. The story definitely shows how tough the conditions were for the refugees, before the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. We are told how cruel and unfair the refugees were treated, and how dangerous and literally life threatening their everyday life could be. We also get an insight of the inhumanity that were shown to those who tried to â€Å"escape† their unsafe homes. Moreover, the author outlines the importance of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. All humans are born free and equal, and they should be treated so. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights is probably one of the most important documents ever written, in my opinion. This story is not only a fight, but also a piece of history, written to ensure basic human dignity. Ali Smith uses humour throughout the story, to illustrate the cruelty of the borders – they way humour and irony is used in the story, will for sure leave a smile on your face.

Poverty and Inequality Essay

Poverty and Inequality Essay Abstract The extent of poverty and inequality remains a topic of enduring interest in Australia and overseas. Poverty in Australia, however, is generally relative poverty. People are considered to be poor if their living standards fall below an overall community standard, and they are unable to participate fully in ordinary activities of society. Earnings inequality and the extent of child poverty is an important issue due to their innocence and their future life chances and social structure. This position paper provides a brief portrait the issues faced by the disadvantaged community at Sydney South West. How can various welfare organizations and agencies assist these disadvantage community groups, briefly explains few facilities provided by such agencies. The paper then discusses the affects of poverty in children and advantages of such knowledge to pre-service teacher. Finally we conclude by exploring the role of teachers and its effects. Community: Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize winning economist, described poverty is the lack of substantive freedoms the capabilities to choose a life one has reason to value. And, as deprivation of basic capabilities rather than merely as lowness of incomes, which is the standard criterion for the identification of poverty ..the approach concentrates on deprivations that are intrinsically important (unlike low income, which is only instrumentally significant). Thus poverty in this sense is an oppression from which we should aim to liberate our people. Poverty is a condition of living which is difficult to measure and almost impossible to conclusively define. People living in poverty in sub-Saharan Africa may lack safe housing, struggle to find food and have no access to drinkable water. This standard of living is known as absolute poverty. But in Australia the standard of living are generally much higher than the countries like Africa. Poverty in Australia is measured relatively, that is benchmarking a disadvantage community groups standard of living with the life style of majority of the population in Australia. The main factors which contribute to poverty in Australia are inequity in the education system (which means some people have less opportunity to enter the skilled labor force), the casualisation of the workforce (which has meant that people have less job security), and reduced government spending on services which are of benefit to the community. The people most affected by poverty in Australia are those with low levels of formal education, the long-term unemployed and others who have restricted access to high-paying work. Certain demographic groups tend to fall into these categories. In 2000 it was recorded that Indigenous Australians, for example, had an unemployment rate of 17.6 per cent much higher than the national average of 7.3 per cent. Another group more likely to live in relative poverty are first-generation immigrants and refugees, many of whom arrive in Australia with few language skills and less support networks than Australian-born residents. Elderly people, disabled people and single parents also record higher rates of poverty. The reason poverty can be considered a spatial issue is two-fold. People of a similar socio-economic background tend to live in the same areas because the amount of money a person makes usually, but not always, influences their decision as to where to purchase or rent a home. At the same time, the area in which a person is born or lives can determine the level of access they will have to quality education and employment opportunities. As education and income can influence settlement patterns and also be influenced by settlement patterns, they can therefore be considered causes and effects of spatial inequality and poverty. Sydney provides an example of a large urban environment with a high level of spatial inequality. Suburban pockets of poverty can be found on the citys fringes, such as Sydneys south-west. This less-affluent (poorer) area is generally higher in unemployment, welfare-dependency, single-parent families, substance (drug and alcohol) abuse and crime, than other Sydney suburbs. The overseas migrants and refugees also chose to settle in this area, because the real estate is much cheaper and the ethnic and racial composition is generally more diverse. Unemployment figures from the 2001 Census revealed vast differences between many areas of Australia. Particularly alarming were certain areas of Sydney. The Glenquarie Housing Commission Estate in Sydneys south-west had an unemployment rate of 26.4 per cent; the national unemployment rate at that time was only 7.1 per cent. The highly publicized riots which occurred in this same area in 2004-05 were an example of some of the violence-related problems that can result if social inequalities are not dealt with. Nonprofit organizations and welfare agencies have played a critical role in helping community in need by providing education, training, residences, counseling, electricity or water vouchers, and in-kind and cash support. Organizations such as Inspire Community Services provide practical support, offering emergency relief, services, and assistance for individuals and families in crisis. They exist to break the cycle of poverty in South West of Sydney through inspiration and without discrimination. Services provided by this organization: Welfare Services Provides services like Emergency Relief,Food Careand Playgroups to Internet Cafà © and Christmas Hampers. EAPA (Energy Accounts Payment Assistance) vouchers for gas and electricity bills. WAPA (Water Authority Payment Assistance) vouchers for water bills. TBAP (Telstra Billing Assistance Program) vouchers for Telstra telephone bills. Clothing vouchers from Inspire Fashion. Direct Debit of Centreline payments through Centrepay. As well as moral support for any situation and other referring community organizations. Clients are assessed on their income and current circumstances. Providing quality fashion wears at a reduced price. Price ranges from 50 ¢ to $10. Enterprise Development Providing mentoring services in a real life professional business environment. Services such as meeting targets, working in teams, computer diagnosis and many more. Financial Solution Assist in budgeting, personal casework/budget,counseling and financial education. Offering free budgeting service to help clients prepare a budget that is targeted to individual needs. Employment Services Employment Services aims to help people within the community gainrelevant skills and self confidence for the workplace. Partnering withgreat organizations such as Mission Australia, MTC Work Solutions, Wesley Uniting Employment and Community First Step weprovide Work for the Dole Programs. These programs are designed to equip job seekers with highly valuable skills in order to prepare them for the workforce. We also offer on site skills following careers such as computer refurbishment, warehousing, screen printing, administration and gardening. Training Our Training Services department offers a variety of training opportunities ranging from accredited to non-accredited courses. Training packages are specially designed to increase clients knowledge and confidence in areas where they may have experienced limitation as well as enhancing their existing skills. Social Welfare We are dedicated to seeing our community empowered through our self development courses. We offer a variety of courses and workshops that relate to every day issues. Poverty has economic and social impacts. Sometimes, instead of being described as living in poverty, people in Australia who do not possess the living standards of the majority, are thought to be socially marginalized or socially isolated. This is because they may feel excluded from benefits of society that the mainstream enjoy, whether or not this is because of where they live or the amount of money they have. The widening the gap between rich and poor Australians is likely to increase this sense of social isolation, which will no doubt negatively impact upon social cohesion. This is particularly true of larger urban centers because the inequalities between different areas are much more obvious when they are in the same town or city. The more observable inequalities become, the more likely people are to directly compare their standards of living with those of others around them. This can have the effect of reducing the sense of mutual belonging and respect that is important for maintaining social cohesion in any community, however large or small. Children in poverty is an emotive issue that has engaged the attention of politicians ranging from Bob Hawkes famous 1987 election promise by 1990 no Australian child will be living in poverty to John Howards March 2004 commitment of $365 million over four years principally for early intervention strategies to help children and families at risk of not growing up in a stable and supportive environment.